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Front Runner Trading EV Calculator

Designed for front-runner back-to-lay trades. Enter your back odds, target lay odds, stake, how often you expect the lay to be matched in-running, and how often the horse wins overall. The calculator shows the expected value (EV) of repeating this trade.

Assumption: This calculator assumes you always lay for a full green-up when your target lay price is hit — locking the same profit whether the horse goes on to win or lose.

How This Front Runner EV Model Works

A typical front-runner trade looks like this: back a likely leader at big odds before the off, then set a lay bet at much shorter odds in-running. If the horse gets to the front the price usually collapses, your lay is matched and you green up for a low-risk profit.

This calculator shows you whether that idea is mathematically worth repeating. It does this by combining:

The Trading Logic

The calculator assumes four things:

  • • When your lay is matched you fully green up — same profit whether the horse later wins or loses.
  • • If the lay is not matched you are simply left holding your original back bet.
  • • Your hit-rate estimate is realistic over a large sample of similar trades.
  • • Your win-chance estimate is your honest read of how often this type of horse actually wins.

More Advanced Tools

Build your complete trading toolkit.

Dutching for Stake → Dutching for Profit → Value Dutch →

Disclaimer: This calculator is provided for educational and entertainment purposes only. EV and ROI estimates are only as accurate as your hit-rate and win-chance inputs. Punters Edge makes no guarantees regarding calculated results or betting outcomes. Always gamble responsibly, especially with in-running trading.